WSFS Business Meeting, online
2025-07-12 16:00![[syndicated profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/feed.png)
The second session of the 2025 WSFS Business Meeting starts in 24 hours’ time, at 9 am PST, and will discuss (in Executive Session) the report of the Investigation Committee into the 2023 Hugos, of which I was a member, and various other rules changes and proposed new constitutional amendments. The first session was held on 3 July. You can find File 770‘s write-up here. I think it was a success. You can watch it here.
I spoke three times, at 1:19:50, 1:41:30 and 2:26:35; the vote went my way on the first two items that I spoke on, and the third, which I opposed, was referred to a committee, which is not a bad hit rate. (At least by my standards.)
I felt that it gained a great deal by being online and asynchronous with the convention. The most obvious gain was in numbers – 160 or so participants were present, which is more than normally show up for the in-person business meeting at WorldCon. The crucial vote on whether the meeting itself was in order and quorate under the rules was passed by 102 to 46. That was the highest participation in a vote all evening; the lowest was on C2 where 114 voted (though all other votes had over 120 participants).
By contrast, in Glasgow the two elections held at the 2024 Business Meeting attracted 89 and 88 votes, and the four counted votes ranged from 55 to 88 participants. In Chicago in 2022, the election for the Mark Protection Committee attracted 90 votes, and the serpentine counts ranged from 55 to 91. The highest counted vote in Chengdu in 2023 was 32, and the second highest 21, though my personal impression was that there were a lot more people than that in the room (despite complaints about its location). So the 3 July session had a lot more participants than the two previous Business Meetings combined.
One of the arguments that was made in favour of the online meeting was that it would boost participation from those who are unable to attend the in-person meetings due to other commitments, notably, running the actual convention. I think on pure numbers, the online Business Meeting proved its case on 3 July. I am not so sure if we brought in new speakers; there were indeed some new voices, but there were plenty of old ones (including my own), and in particular I’d like to hear more from the actual Worldcon runners. Perhaps tomorrow’s agenda will be more fruitful in that regard.
(The highest number of counted votes at a Business Meeting that I can quickly find was the vote to introduce E Pluribus Hugo in 2015, in the urgency of the Puppy crisis, where there were 186 in favour and 62 against, a total of 248 and a margin of exactly three to one. I hope we won’t see such dire circumstances again. Of course in many cases, votes at an in-person meeting are decided by a show of hands, and the fact that we take a 30-60 second interval to count votes in the on-line meeting does slow things down; but it also ensures that everyone’s vote is counted.)
The online aspect doesn’t take out all of the tedium – we really did not need to spend 25 minutes debating which bits of C.2 needed to be passed, and the fact that the meeting’s lowest participation vote came at the end of that is probably significant, but the great thing about watching in front of your computer is that you can go and get yourself a drink or a snack while waiting for that bit to be over.
There is much discussion about the way forward. Some object that this year’s meeting is not being held according to the rules, though that argument is surely over now, especially since future Business Meetings will presumably accept the decisions made this year. A nightmare proposal is that there could be a hybrid meeting. I am firmly opposed to that; I think you either have to go one way or the other. Counting votes cast both virtually and in person, and managing debate between online and in-person participants, will be brutal. We’ll see what happens in the remaining three on-line meetings this year, but I’m hopeful that the fully virtual process will successfully prove that it can (and perhaps even should) be done this way in future.
Meanwhile my own personal guide to the agenda remains available for consultation here:
Huh
2025-07-12 12:02![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
2010: Melbourne, Australia
2011: Reno, USA
2019: Dublin, Ireland
2020: Wellington, New Zealand
2024: Glasgow, Scotland
(I was nowhere near the ballot in 2009, Montreal)
At a guess, those are years where vote totals were a bit lower?
( Read more... )
12 July books
2025-07-12 14:01![[syndicated profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/feed.png)
Non-fiction
The Periodic Table, by Primo Levi (2008)
Non-genre
The Virgin in the Garden, by A.S. Byatt (2024)
SF
So Long Been Dreaming: Postcolonial Visions of the Future, eds Nalo Hopkinson and Uppinder Mehan (2009)
Your Code Name is Jonah, by Edward Packard (2018)
Atlantis Fallen, by C.E. Murphy (2023)
The Circus Infinite, by Khan Wong (2023)
Doctor Who
Timewyrm: Exodus, by Terrance Dicks (2006)
Doctor Who and the Visitation, by Eric Saward (2008)
Doctor Who – Arc of Infinity, by Terrance Dicks (2008)
Doctor Who – Snakedance, by Terrance Dicks (2008)
Doctor Who – Mawdryn Undead, by Peter Grimwade (2008)
Doctor Who – Terminus, by John Lydecker / Steve Gallagher (2008)
Doctor Who – Enlightenment, by Barbara Clegg (2008)
Doctor Who – The King’s Demons, by Terence Dudley (2008)
Doctor Who – The Five Doctors, by Terrance Dicks (2008)
Downtime, by Marc Platt (2009)
Comics
The Unwritten Vol. 6: Tommy Taylor and the War of Words, by Mike Carey (2016)
Marzi: A memoir, by Marzena Sowa (2017)
The Best
Primo Levi’s The Periodic Table is a humane and inspiring meditation on humanity through the lens of chemical elements. (Review; get it here.)
Honorable mentions
The anthology So Long Been Dreaming: Postcolonial Visions of the Future brings forward a number of important voices to the spectrum of sf writing. (Review; get it here.)
A lot of people seem to disdain the first of A.S. Byatt’s Federica novels, The Virgin in the Garden, but I was fascinated and amused by it. (Review; get it here.)
The one you haven’t heard of
C.E. Murphy has not (yet) had the recognition that she deserves in terms of winning awards, yet she consistently churns out good to excellent fantasy (and occasionally sf). You could do worse than start with her Atlantis Fallen. (Review; get it here).
The one to avoid
Terence Dudley’s novelisation of his own Doctor Who story, The King’s Demons, is very disappointing. (Review; get it here.)
Books Received, July 5 — July 11
2025-07-12 08:47![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)

Four books new to me.Two are SF, one is fantasy, one is a mix of both. I don't see anything unambiguously labelled as series works.
Books Received, July 5 — July 11
Which of these look interesting?
Secrets, Spells, and Chocolate by Marisa Churchill (December 2025)
9 (31.0%)
Spread Me by Sarah Gailey (September 2025)
12 (41.4%)
The Forest on the Edge of Time by Jasmin Kirkbride (February 2026)
10 (34.5%)
The Universe Box by Michael Swanwick (February 2026)
12 (41.4%)
Some other option (see comments)
1 (3.4%)
Cats!
23 (79.3%)
![[syndicated profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/feed.png)
Bruno Luvizotto Carli
Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, PR, Brazil.
brunolcarli (at) gmail (dot) com
Competitive Pokémon battles often hinge on the initial selection of Pokémon leads. Anticipating an opponent’s lead choice offers a tactical edge, particularly in high-stakes matches. In this paper, I explore the use of Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA), a natural language processing algorithm, applied to over 5,000 Pokémon Showdown battle logs, to predict likely lead pairs based on team compositions. Evaluated against the Top 8 bracket of the North America International Championships (NAIC) 2025, the model achieved promising results, showcasing the potential of unsupervised learning in strategic game prediction.
POKÉMON VGC
The Video Game Championships (VGC) are the official competitive format organized by The Pokémon International and Play! Pokémon organizations. These events culminate in the annual Pokémon World Championships, which bring together top players from around the globe in various formats including the video games, the trading card game, and select spin-off titles.
In VGC, battles are conducted in a Double Battle format where each player brings six Pokémon, but selects only four to battle. Two are sent out as leads, and two remain in the back for switching. The game begins with a team preview phase, during which players see their opponent’s six Pokémon and their move sets and held items (Bulbapedia, 2025).
LATENT SEMANTIC ANALYSIS
Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) is a technique from natural language processing used to discover relationships between documents and terms by mapping them into a lower-dimensional space via Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). In this transformed space, documents can be compared based on the semantic similarity of their content. Originally developed for text retrieval and indexing, LSA (or LSI when used in information retrieval contexts) works by converting documents into a term-document matrix and reducing it to capture the most important relationships (Foltz, 1996; Wikipedia, 2025).
WHY IS A GOOD LEAD SELECTION RELEVANT IN VGC?
This question defines the core intention of this study. The fact is that all matches start in the team preview phase where each player has to decide which Pokémon will participate in the battle, leaving two of them out of the battle. This is an important decision because the four selected Pokémon must be solid and concise to overwhelm the opponent’s team. Selecting a good pair of Pokémon with synergy will put pressure on the opponent side of the board, if the player makes the right call on the opponent’s leads and selects two Pokémon that are able to counter and check them, thus gaining some advantage on the match.
As well stated by (Zheng, 2020), “picking the proper Pokémon in team preview can give you a major advantage before the game even starts”, so the team preview holds a decisive part in the match. It is one of the most difficult parts of the game and there’s no easy answer or cookbook to a perfect choice that will always work; not even the best players get it right 100% of the time.
Aaron Zheng emphasized that an effective lead not only applies early pressure but also aligns with the broader strategic intent of the team. Through mental flowcharts and recognition of synergy-based combinations (e.g., Speed control + Attacker, Redirection + Setup), players can anticipate the likely opposing leads and respond with countermeasures that tilt the battle in their favor. Also, the attempt to anticipate the opponent’s strategy (particularly their most threatening combinations) forms the basis of lead prediction.
This capacity to predict an opponent’s decisions is foundational for algorithmic approaches aimed at narrowing viable options and improving the player’s lead selection. Leads are not merely chosen in isolation, but evaluated in the context of synergy, threat coverage, and their role in the broader battle plan (Zheng, 2020).
The predictive paradigm is reenforced by Traylor (apud Zheng, 2020) as an important part of the game, thus supporting the idea of proposing a narrative-based framework, in which players simulate possible match leads during team preview.
METHODOLOGY
Data collection
Data was sourced from publicly available battle logs hosted in an online battle simulator used extensively by the competitive community to test and train teams. The replay logs can be accessed via a URL trick: appending “.log” to the end of a replay page reveals the raw text file containing detailed information about each battle. This includes: (1) the complete teams for each player (six Pokémon each); (2) the two initial Pokémon (leads) sent out at the start of battle (Pokémon Showdown, 2025).
A scraping script was written in Python using the requests library to collect over 5,000 logs to extract team and lead data (available in Carli, 2025a).
Data filtering
To match a real-world competitive context, logs were filtered to include only those where at least one team used six Pokémon from the set of species seen in the NAIC 2025 Masters Top 8 bracket (Figs. 1, 2). This produced a refined dataset of 1,174 battle logs. While Figure 3 lists the top 30 most frequent Pokémon in the train set, all the Pokémon frequencies from the teams used by top cut players are listed in Figure 4 (data from LabMaus, 2025).




Model input format
As stated by Zheng (2020), the team preview is heavily influenced by the team each player is using. So, in order to find a pattern of the selected lead a structure containing both teams in the match must be provided so each battle instance is represented as a string: “poke1 poke2 poke3 poke4 poke5 poke6 VS poke1 poke2 poke3 poke4 poke5 poke6”.
Here, the left side of the ‘VS’ represents the user’s team and the right side represents the opponent. The model is trained to predict the opponent’s most likely two-Pokémon lead.
Implementation
The model was implemented using Gensim’s LSI model with a Bag-of-Words representation. Lead prediction was based on vector similarity (cosine distance) between the input battle string and those seen during training.
The model may return a set of predictions by configuring a parameter named max_preds on the wrapper function that invokes the model. This parameter will inform the model how many possibilities of combination the opponent side can select and return a number of predictions equivalent to the value defined as argument to the parameter. Using this approach, it is possible to test the performance based on how many possibilities predicted by the model were necessary to correctly predict the real lead a player has selected, in other words it is expected that with more prediction possibilities the more biased might be the model.
For example, let’s suppose that before a final match of the tournament (the match that will crown a champion) both players are practicing with their teammates at the hotel in order to get prepared for the ultimate decisive battle. If the algorithm was configured to predict three possible combinations of lead based on their teams and battle over and over with his teammates using those predicted leads so the player can get more prepared for what’s to come, is an acceptable threshold for this player to go with. But if the algorithm was configured to predict eight or ten possible combinations, the player will be less likely to accomplish all sorts of possibilities in time. So, evaluation of the model over a range of possibilities can reveal the margin of error the model can perform by predicting less possibilities with higher accuracy.
Evaluation method
Predictions were evaluated by comparing model outputs with real-world leads from the NAIC 2025 Top 8 bracket. Since the leads used by each player are not explicitly shown in the website data, this information was collected by watching the live stream record available on YouTube (via Núñez, 2025).
The author watched the start of every match from the top cut bracket and taken notes of each lead used by the players that was included in the source code validation test set. Figure 5 shows an example of how the author identified the lead of each player on a match to set up the evaluation test set.

There were two possible ways to achieve a quantitative value for evaluation: (1) predicting correctly both lead Pokémon of a player; (2) predicting at least one lead Pokémon of a player.
In order to achieve this, it was defined one metric for each of these possibilities: Hard Prediction: a score of 1 if both predicted leads match the real leads (order-independent) otherwise 0. Soft Prediction: a score of 1 if both predicted leads match the real leads (order-independent) or a score of 0.5 if only one predicted lead matches, otherwise 0.
This approach makes it possible to evaluate the model from two points of view: (1) a perfect prediction that implies on a hard complexity level; (2) a more likely possible prediction that implies flexibility to the analytical context.
The main goal of using the data of a real competition as evaluation metric is to bring the theoretical implication of data science over a real-world problem. This brings more insightful ways to obtain a reliable proof of concept to computational abstract algorithms, which creates a more meaningful solution context for the application. Final performance metrics are the mean average of these values across all tournament matches for a set of parameter range of configurations. The source code and implementation are available online (see Carli, 2025b).
RESULTS
The model’s performance was evaluated on each of the 32 battles from the NAIC Top 8 bracket and tested with the parameter configuration in a range of values from one to ten. Table 1 lists the evaluation of the model on each parameter. It is visible that the higher the number of predictions, the higher the score obtained, implying that the model was able to find a combination that matches with the lead used by the player in the tournament (Fig. 6).


Considering the most likely three possible lead Pokémon the opponent will bring, the overall Hard Prediction (correctly predict both leads) scored 62.50% while the overall Soft Prediction (correctly predict one of the leads) scored 81.25%. As the number of predictions grows, the algorithm is more likely able to find a pattern that matches with the leads used in almost every game, reaching a Hard Prediction score of 90.63% accuracy and Soft Prediction 95.31%.
Table 2 describes the middle term (five predictions) for every match in the NAIC 2025 Top 8 bracket scores: Hard Prediction = 68.75%; Soft Prediction = 84.38%. In the finals, where players have the most time to prepare and study opponent teams, the scores were highly accurate even for the three most likely leads (Table 3), scoring: Hard Prediction = 83.33%; Soft Prediction = 91.66%.
These results suggest that even a simple unsupervised algorithm can provide meaningful insights in a competitive context.


DISCUSSION
While the model does not capture all the nuance of VGC gameplay (e.g., movesets, synergy, in-game momentum), it offers a surprising amount of strategic value simply by analyzing team compositions from previous matches played in simulation games and confirming the existence of a pattern that describes the more likely lead players choose to pick based on the matchup. It can serve as a scouting tool or sparring assistant.
Furthermore, the methodology avoids trying to model the data around the entire dataset from the initial number of logs collected from the data source, instead focusing on a specific set of Pokémon existent in the teams used by the players classified for the top cut resulting in an impactful decision point: the lead selection. This narrow focus keeps the modeling tractable and meaningful, demonstrating capability of pattern recognition on well-defined matchups when predicting a higher number of combinations.
But of course, it’s true that Pokémon VGC is very challenging and complex in many ways, considering the skills and experience of the players, as well as the mind games involved in tricking the opponents with unpredictable choices, which are parameters the algorithm still does not understand. But competitions are overwhelming even for most experienced players and scouting tools like this are here to help the players to start to identifying common plays without stressing too much, especially in the finals where players have more knowledge of their opponents and more time to practiceand prepare.
By grounding the evaluation in a real-world tournament with known outcomes and high stakes, this study demonstrates practical relevance and not just theoretical performance. The application has potential to become a promising tool for preparation before matches in the future.
CONCLUSION
This study presented an innovative application of LSA to the Pokémon VGC context, demonstrating that unsupervised semantic models can support competitive decision-making in eSports. While not state of the art in terms of algorithmic sophistication, the work is novel in its domain adaptation and bridges data science with strategic gameplay.
FURTHER WORK
Future improvements may include supervised refinement, incorporation of moves/item metadata, and broader meta-context generalization. Predicting not only the lead but the four picks for a match is also a good improvement for more complex analysis of game matchups. Another creative and helpful point of view is to predict the most likely Pokémon a player decides not to bring to a game according to its disadvantage. One last useful analytical variance of the model application is to look for strengths and weakness among team compositions in order to optimize the coverage and synergy between the six Pokémon formation in teambuilding process which was well mentioned by Zheng (2020) when pointing that “stronger teams will allow you to have more options during team preview. Bad match-ups will lead to more difficult team preview phases, and you’ll occasionally be in situations where you don’t have any good leads. Selecting a strong team will make team preview easier for you.”
REFERENCES
Bulbapedia. (2025) World Championships. Bulbapedia. Available from: https://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/World_Championships (Date of access: 25/Jun/2025).
Carli, B.L. (2025a) VGC Pokémon Showdown Battle Logs. Kaggle. Available from: https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/brunolcarli/vgc-pokmon-showdown-battle-logs (Date of access: 25/Jun/2025).
Carli, B.L. (2025b) Pokémon VGC Leads Prediction with LSA. Kaggle. Available from: https://www.kaggle.com/code/brunolcarli/pokemon-vgc-leads-prediction-with-lsa/notebook (Date of access: 25/Jun/2025).
Foltz, P. (1996) Latent Semantic Analysis for text-based research. Behavior Research Methods 28: 197–202.
LabMaus. (2025) North America International Championships 2025. LabMaus. Available from: https://labmaus.net/tournaments/30842/8 (Date of access: 25/Jun/2025).
Núñez, A. (2025) 2025 North America International Championships. Victory Road. Available from: https://victoryroad.pro/2025-naic/ (Date of access: 25/Jun/2025).
Pokémon Showdown. (2025) Pokémon Showdown! battle simulator. Pokémon Showdown. Available from: https://pokemonshowdown.com/ (Date of access: 25/Jun/2025).
Zheng, A. (2020) Team Preview. VGC Guide. Available from: https://www.vgcguide.com/team-preview (Date of access: 25/Jun/2025).
Wikipedia. (2025) Latent semantic analysis. Wikipedia. Available from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latent_semantic_analysis (Accessed: 25/Jun/2025).
Acknowledgements
ChatGPT (OpenAI) was used to improve the writing style of this article and the. The author reviewed, edited, and revised the ChatGPT-generated texts to his own liking and takes ultimate responsibility for the content of this publication.
About the Author
Bruno L. Carli is a Brazilian software developer with a major bachelor in Software Engineering (Unicesumar, 2020) and postgraduate specialization in Applied Artificial Intelligence (Universidade Federal do Paraná-UFPR, 2023), Pokémon VGC player passionate about video games and technology.
Reading some reactions
2025-07-12 00:52![[syndicated profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/feed.png)
Hugo-finalist Jordan S. Carroll has an interesting post at the Los Angeles Review of Books. I suspect most people who read this blog have already read Carroll’s Speculative Whiteness (and if you haven’t, you should), so much of Carroll’s essay will be familiar.
Carroll’s work has very deftly captured the current right-wing obsession with science fiction. That obsession connects many of the figures I’ve covered here with the weird techno-feudalism of the neo-reactionaries and space-the-final-frontier ideology of people like Elon Musk and the tech-bros who strip mine science fiction for what they think are cool concepts but which were intended as dire warnings.
As Carroll notes:
“In recent years, the emergence of techno-fascism out of Silicon Valley and into the White House has made it easier to see the future as a site of struggle. Wealthy and powerful figures such as Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, and Palmer Luckey force us to recognize that there is nothing inherently progressive about futurism, including within science fiction. Scholars are thus now coming to grips with reactionary futurism.”
https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/reactionary-futurism-2025/
Carroll’s essay does touch on the Sad/Rabid Puppies also and that has engendered the ire of our recurring-blog-topic and notable not-actually-a-nazi Vox Day.
Day has latched on to this paragraph from Carroll’s essay:
“More fundamentally, though, the Far Right believes that the future belongs to them. In much reactionary discourse, only white men have any meaningful ability to imagine the future. According to this worldview, white people possess a racially unique capacity for speculation, including rational planning, counterfactual imagination, and inspired innovation. At the same time, the Far Right claims that only white men have the discipline, intelligence, and foresight to realize this future. This ideology holds that whiteness is a potential for greatness, including the inborn ability to build a high-tech society. In other words, whiteness is speculative to the alt-right: it possesses a promissory value far in excess of any white men’s actual achievements. Some fascist thinkers have gone so far as to suggest that science fiction is an inherently white genre. For example, Theodore Beale (a.k.a. Vox Day), the leader of the Rabid Puppies fan group, claimed that increased racial diversity would ruin the genre because, in his view, people of color could not possibly understand the achievements of white science fiction authors. Despite the widespread success of speculative authors of color in recent decades, there are fascists who hold that nonwhite people are genetically incapable of imagining and inhabiting science-fictional futures.”
ibid
To back up Carroll’s claims here I’ll just wave at ten-years worth of blog posts and a whole 76 chapter Hugo-finalist book which I wrote. However, Day disagrees. In a recent post on his own blog, Day has a 7 point list of objections to this paragraph.
“The future does belong to the so-called “Far Right”. The Left and the Center-Right subscribe to observably and objectively false beliefs, don’t have enough children to replace themselves, don’t have any lasting principles, and can’t even tell the difference between a man and a woman anymore. Their ideas and philosophies are not only bankrupt, they are literally dying out.”
https://web.archive.org/web/20250711203437/https://voxday.net/2025/07/11/correction-6/
To which we should note that Day’s chosen pick for President has a government that is actively undermining maternity medical care in the US (along with health care in general) and also actively undermining America’s vaccination program. I’m not convinced of the long term demographic inevitability of an ideology like Day’s that actively discourages people from taking simple steps to reduce childhood mortality.
I could pick through all seven points but mostly it is Day saying that he is right, that white people are somehow inherently superior and that also he isn’t a fascist. OK, sure, I’ve said I don’t like to be a taxonomic purist so let us just say Day believes white people of Northern European descent are inherently superior and the US should be an authoritarian ethnostate which has been ethnically cleansed of everybody from the Italians southwards (and probably the Irish, I’ll need to check my notes) but MAYBE he isn’t a fascist because, I don’t know, nobody is going to believe (mistakenly) that he would make the trains run on time.
I will do one more point from Day:
“I claimed that increased racial diversity would ruin the genre and I have been proven absolutely correct. There is no objective metric by which it can be claimed that diversity and inclusion have improved it in any way. Fewer readers, lower average advances, fewer book sales, fewer authors published by publishers, fewer bestsellers, and so forth. Diversity and inclusion are not the only cause of the decline, but they have observably contributed to it.”
ibid
Well that does feel like a stronger point, after all people on both left and right have been pointing to a commercial decline not just in science fiction but in literature in general. Maybe it was the woke that did it?
Hmmm, if only we had a way of testing that. Hypothetically, if we were god-like scientists, we would create a comparison group. We would hop back in time to an arbitary point, say 2014, and set up a kind of anti-woke science fiction publisher. “Anti-woke” would be anachronistic so to avoid being spotted as time travellers we’d probably call it “anti-SJW”. Having done all that, we’d just let the clock run forward again.
If Day is right then our comparison group, unburdened by Wokeness, would flourish by bringing diversity free science fiction to the masses!
Coincidentally, how is Castalia House doing at the moment? Very badly and essentially culturally irrelevant? In 2017, Castalia published 20+ books and then after that, at most one or two a year and mainly either Day’s own turgid fantasy series or reprints of John C. Wright.
Meanwhile, there is of course the far more redoubtable Baen Books which has genuinely published some books I wanted to read in recent years and actually spent money on for reasons other than being snarky. Well, Day himself (in big bold letters) says in another post that “Baen Books is Dead”. He’s overstating it but Baen hasn’t found money and glory by tacking rightwards either. On this blog we’ve followed various publishing ventures such Superversive Press or Silver Empire that pitched themselves as antidote to supposed leftwing biases. I’m not mocking their efforts, there are plenty of small press ventures of all viewpoints that start off with ambitions and last a few years and then disappear. My point is simply that this imagined hidden reservoir of right-leaning readers is really a relatively small pool. That audience can support a Larry Correia comfortably, some other authors intermittently but it simply hasn’t been big enough to allow capable writers (Sarah Hoyt, Dave Freer, Brad Torgersen to pick the obvious examples) to make a reasonable living.
In terms of commercial success or even in terms of moderate-success-but-don’t-give-up-the-day-job, left and left-leaning science fiction has far more examples of authors, bigger readership, wider audiences and just way more things happening. Diversity hasn’t turned back the tides that are pushing against publishing but it’s clearly had more commercial success than the opposite and far more critical success and vastly more pop-cultural influence.
That last point is important because that is both the biggest sore point with the right and a constant rallying cry. The repeated conflicts in pop-cultural spaces from major flair ups like Gamergate to the constant lower-level whining about Star Wars or Doctor who or Star Trek or Superman having being ruined by going “woke”, is all centred on this idea that the left has (somehow) gained control of popular culture and are using it to make propaganda for blackgaytransgenderlesbiancommunism.
Stepping away from our old friend Ted, I saw via Bluesky a different response to Carroll’s LARB essay from somebody I don’t know. Entitled “The Priest on the Wall” is has a slightly mocking (and maybe accidentally badass) illustration presenting Jordan Carroll as some kind of fantasy cleric with a spear defending a wall from demonic wolf monsters. Frankly I’m jealous.
Written by Cairo Smith, this is a vastly better response than Vox Day’s. Clearly the writer read the LARB essay and has engaged with the ideas in it. However, I didn’t find the critique convincing.
For example, take this paragraph:
“The defining trait of the right-wing idea space is an almost confounding diversity of thought, as modeled by various researchers, although there are plenty of ingroup and outgroup signifiers that exist at the level of aesthetics. I borrow the term ‘hopeful monsters’ from biologist Richard Goldschmidt to describe this diversity, using it in the Roderick Beaton sense to mean quirky political upstarts that will die off or, rarely, become successful. They are all different from each other, often contradictory, often at odds. The opinions of one cannot stand well for another, since their only real through line is opposition to the mainstream left. Defining them in positivist, generalizable terms in baskets of ‘right’ and ‘far right’ is a difficult errand, but nonetheless it’s exactly what Carroll has endeavored to accomplish.”
https://www.futuristletters.com/p/the-priest-on-the-wall
I could quibble that research linked to doesn’t show what the author thinks it does1 but there is a genuine sense in which the range of ideas on the right can appear to be confoundingly complex. This isn’t surprising and it is because of some kind of healthy debate of ideas. For example, if you look into communities focused on alternative health you will also find ideas that are “often contradictory, often at odds”. Homeopathy contradicts herbalism but you’ll find people who practice both. It is true that you can’t literally use the opinions of a homeopath to stand for the opinions of a chiropractor but also…you sort of can because, in fact, often the details simply don’t matter. Their real through line is opposition to mainstream medicine but that is actually the point, not whether you can dilute an active ingredient to the point of non-existance and somehow make it more powerful. The same effect can be seen in conspiracy theory circles as well or UFOologist.
Rather than an exciting range of hopeful monsters, the modern US right is caught up in simple contrarianism to the point of folding into itself much of the nonsense from wellness and conspiracy communities. Importantly, what that means is that the modern right has no METHOD i.e. no systematic way of determining what is true (or more likely to be true) from what is false AND increasingly rejects such methods that have developed (logic, empiricism, legal precedent, academic expertise, peer-review, science in general). So, sure, that is an environment in which you can believe six impossible things before breakfast but the ideas that come out of that soup do not survive out of correspondence to truth or practicality but by which voices are the biggest bullies with the most money.
In fact, it isn’t that hard to generalise these views into baskets of right and left because the bulk of the ideas are either just noise or in some cases just conflicting bigotries2. Specifically, if we are talking about right-wing science fiction then, yes, Sarah Hoyt has different views than Vox Day, who has different views than Larry Correia and yes, the commonality was that they all wanted to act in opposition to the left. However, that just takes us back to the underlying point. The modern right lacks core, central, compelling ideas and exists primarily to be an opposition to the left and increasingly, almost any idea than with strong empirical backing3.
OK, I’m wandering off topic here but there are some other points I want to pick out.
“You may notice we have strayed a long way from science fiction by now. If tech billionaires aren’t funding homeless services, they certainly aren’t funding esoteric right-wing sci-fi novels, either.”
ibid
I thought this was very interesting statement. In an earlier paragraph, Cairo Smith, talks about some things he thinks Carroll got right. He cites a story from the right wing literary publisher Passage Press that relfects some of the observations Carroll makes about right wing science fiction. Passage Press is the company I wrote about previously connected to Ark Press, Larry Correia’s new publisher, who Vox Day claims is funded by Peter Thiel and which is at least tangentially connected to tech-billionaire Marc Andreessen (see this article by Jason Wilson which has many familiar names in it https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/03/far-right-book-publishing-passage-press ).
Now, I don’t know for certain that there is tech-billionaire money behind Ark Press but…well somebody is paying the salaries for a bunch of editors, book advances and a writing prize and I can’t imagine a regular bank would give anybody money on the grounds of ‘we are going to make lots of money selling science fiction’. On the one hand maybe there is somebody with a lot of money who things science fiction publishing is a sound financial investment, or on the other hand it is somebody with money to burn who has stated that:
““Now it’s either about technology that doesn’t work or about technology that’s used in bad ways. The anthology of the top twenty-five sci-fi stories in 1970 was, like, ‘Me and my friend the robot went for a walk on the moon,’ and in 2008 it was, like, ‘The galaxy is run by a fundamentalist Islamic confederacy, and there are people who are hunting planets and killing them for fun.’ ”
Peter Thiel in 2011 https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/11/28/no-death-no-taxes?currentPage=all&mobify=0
In short, I think Cairo Smith mistakes the noise for the message on the right. I think he also underestimates the role of the fringes on popular culture and fiction in general. People will accept more radical politics in their fiction than in their actual lives. Science fiction in particular is often host to ideas more radical (for good and bad) than are mainstream in their current society.
Hey, footnotes!
- In fact I will quibble about that. The paper is here https://bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bjso.12665 and it doesn’t address a confounding diversity of thought but a different but related idea that ordinary Americans generally on the right has less consensus on social issues than people generally on the left. If you check the associated materials, you can see that they surveyed participants on just 8 issues:
Item 1) Abortion should be illegal.
Item 2) The government should take steps to make incomes more equal.
Item 3) All unauthorized immigrants should be sent back to their home country.
Item 4) The federal budget for welfare programs should be increased.
Item 5) Lesbian, gay and trans couples should be allowed to legally marry.
Item 6) The government should regulate business to protect the environment.
Item 7) The federal government should make it more difficult to buy a gun.
Item 8) The federal government should make a concerted effort to improve social and economic conditions for African Americans.
Republican-leaning participants were more likely to have mixed views on these i.e. it is easier to find a Republican voter who is anti-gay but pro-choice (or vice versa) than a Democrat.
If you think women, Black people, immigrants, trans-people, gay-people, poor-people and just people in general deserve to have safe happy lives and the government should help make that happen, these are all easy questions to give a quick answer to. If you don’t think that but have a vague sense of both “liberty” and “tradition”, they are hard questions to answer. Of the questions only 2 is overtly left wing, the others all fit within a liberal conception of rights of which only 7 does the “rights” framework work for the right-wing position.︎
- For example, there is a very public split between left and the centre on the Israeli government’s genocide in Gaza. There is a parallel split on the right but there it a split between those people whose Islamophobia is stronger than their antisemitism and those where it is the other way around but it is still just basically the same underlying bigotry.
︎
- I’m not trying to imply that leftwing ideas have strong empirical backing. I’m saying those are the two things that the right is positioning itself against.
︎
Squid Dominated the Oceans in the Late Cretaceous
2025-07-11 21:04![[syndicated profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/feed.png)
New research:
One reason the early years of squids has been such a mystery is because squids’ lack of hard shells made their fossils hard to come by. Undeterred, the team instead focused on finding ancient squid beaks—hard mouthparts with high fossilization potential that could help the team figure out how squids evolved.
With that in mind, the team developed an advanced fossil discovery technique that completely digitized rocks with all their embedded fossils in complete 3D form. Upon using that technique on Late Cretaceous rocks from Japan, the team identified 1,000 fossilized cephalopod beaks hidden inside the rocks, which included 263 squid specimens and 40 previously unknown squid species.
The team said the number of squid fossils they found vastly outnumbered the number of bony fishes and ammonites, which are extinct shelled relatives of squids that are considered among the most successful swimmers of the Mesozoic era.
“Forty previously unknown squid species.” Wow.
As usual, you can also use this squid post to talk about the security stories in the news that I haven’t covered.
Review: Murderbot (Apple)
2025-07-11 20:10![[syndicated profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/feed.png)
It would have been hard for me not to like this show. During the first episode I was thinking “Do I like this or do I just want to like this?”
A few episodes in and I definitely was really liking it but also feeling very frustrated by the short episodes. Ironically, I think the only episode that suffered by the sit-com length episodes was the final episode. It felt drawn out as the plot dealt with the repercussions of the events while heading towards an ending that would work if the show was not renewed but also be a good launching point for a season 2. The good news is the show has been renewed but I assume that wasn’t know when the final episode was made.
As good as the books? Better? Worse? Or just different?
As I noted in an earlier post on the show, a lot of the appeal in the books was that Murderbot itself is a figure many people identified with. It has no specific gender or ethnicity and no sexuality, which allowed many readers to see aspects of their own personality in Murderbot. TV-Murderbot is less open to this transfer of the reader onto the character. That greater distance between the viewer and Murderbot is bridged by TV-Murderbot being absurdly likeable.
Meanwhile, the Preservation survey team are far more fleshed out as characters in the TV show. To some degree, the implied diversity of the singular book-Murderbot (one character whom many different kinds of people identified with) is reflected in the survey team who, across the story arc, find different aspects of themselves reflected by the oddness of Murderbot. For Gurathin (David Dastmalchian) the similarities between himself and the sec-unit are things he finds confronting.
For the broader group (and in particular Ratthi) there is this initial sense of a forced, unnatural empathy where they are trying to like the sec-unit because they feel a moral obligation to recognise the worth of another sentient being. The show doesn’t suggest they are wrong to do so but it is a notable contrast with how they all are in the final episode. The possible loss of Murderbot as a member of their group is something that strikes them with heartfelt loss.
Everything really did come together very well for the penultimate episode (entitled “All Systems Red” after the original novella. The show was sort of pitched as an action comedy and this episode managed that very well. It was genuinely funny and tense and the ending was deeply moving even though I new everything was going to be fine by the end of the series.
Anyway, a big round of applause all round. They pulled it off. I’m really looking forward to season 2.
As a bonus Reactor has a Murderbot-universe story free to read featuring Perihelion aka ART https://reactormag.com/rapport-martha-wells/
Demonic Ox arrives today!
2025-07-11 11:29![[syndicated profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/feed.png)
Amazon Kindle is first out the gate:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FHBMR3DN
Not yet up, but pending:
Kobo, Google Play Books, and Apple Books are interesting if you search by my name, because they each carry so many foreign language titles, if you scroll down. (Amazon ditto, I suppose.) These pages should populate in due course, though it may take a while for a new entry to sift to the top:
https://www.kobo.com/us/en/search?que...
https://play.google.com/store/info/na...
https://books.apple.com/us/author/loi...
B&N Nook, same deal:
https://www.barnesandnoble.com/s/lois...
To recap:

The Adventure of the Demonic Ox
When sorcerer Learned Penric hears of the suspected demonic possession of an ox at his brother-in-law’s bridgebuilding worksite, he thinks it an excellent opportunity to tutor his adopted daughter and student sorceress Otta in one of their Temple duties: identifying and restraining such wild chaos elementals before harm comes to their hosts or surroundings.
What begins as an instructive family outing turns anything but routine when a mountain search becomes a much more frightening adventure for Penric and his charges. What is undergone there by both mentor and students will yield lessons both unexpected and far-reaching.
***
I'll make my usual spoiler discussion space post tomorrow, for the speed readers.
As always, reader mentions of the new title out and about on the internet and elsewhere are always greatly appreciated, as this blog and word of mouth are the only advertising my indie books get. Amazon always gets plenty of reviews; the other vendors are usually more in need. But no one will see any vendor pages unless they've already heard of the story someplace else, and go to look, so outside reviews and mentions are especially important.
Ta, L.
posted by Lois McMaster Bujold on July, 11
“The Faery Handbag”, by Kelly Link
2025-07-11 16:08![[syndicated profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/feed.png)
Third paragraph (it has no sections):
One time we were looking through kid’s t-shirts and we found a Muppets t-shirt that had belonged to Natalie in third grade. We knew it belonged to her, because it still had her name inside, where her mother had written it in permanent marker, when Natalie went to summer camp. Jake bought it back for her, because he was the only one who had money that weekend. He was the only one who had a job.
This was the subject of the very last of my first set of reviews of joint winners of the Hugos and Nebulas in the written fiction categories, published in January 2008 before I completely ran out of steam for that project. I wrote then:
I didn’t vote for it. Indeed, I put it last of the five nominees in the novelette category for the Hugos, where I had a vote as a Worldcon member; not because I didn’t like it, but because I liked the other stories on the ballot even more. The result was the closest of the four fiction categories, and voters found it difficult to choose for the lower places – second place decided by a single vote, joint win for third place. I don’t begrudge the result; all five nominees were very good, and I see that by the time the Nebulas came around I had changed my views and put it top (though three of the other four stories of course were different). Well, what was it Emerson said about consistency?
In fairness to myself, I think it’s a story that grows on you. On first reading I found it very entertaining but didn’t think it was especially deep; part of my increase in affection for it came about as a result of reading the whole Magic for Beginners collection of Kelly Link’s stories and developing a taste for her particular style of magical realism, urban fantasy, underlaid with darker tones. ‘The Faery Handbag’ is a story told by Genevieve, a young woman living near Boston whose grandmother came with her handbag from far-off Baldeziwurlekistan; the handbag may or may not contain a fierce canine guardian, Grandmother Zofia’s home village, Genevieve’s grandfather Rustam and her boyfriend Jake. But Genevieve has lost the handbag (this is not a spoiler as she tells us so on the second page). And that’s about it.
Part of my initial under-appreciation of the story may be my own background, as a native of Northern Ireland who has worked on the various different countries of Eastern Europe for the last eleven years. Perhaps from an American perspective, Baldeziwurlekistan is an amusing mix of those funny European countries over there, combining Celtic, Germanic, Slavic and classical elements in its mythology. For me, the lack of precision in the geography of Baldeziwurlekistan was a problem; I need to know where things are on the map, and Link’s story is about taking them off the map. I also found myself a bit frustrated by the narrator’s ambiguity about her own reliability, though other reviewers felt this was part of the story’s charm.
Having said that, I agree with everyone who loves Link’s descriptive writing here, from the account of looking through second-hand clothes in the first paragraph to the poignancy of Zofia’s death at the end; and the way we learn about the narrator’s frame of mind from the way she describes the events around her is tremendously subtle and effective. Indeed, as Abigail Nussbaum points out, it’s a bit more approachable than some of Link’s other stories, which may (again) be part of the reason I didn’t quite take to it immediately. But I’ve found it rather a difficult story to grasp sufficiently to write about, which is part of the reason this series of reviews has been on hiatus for seventeen months.
(And of course I never returned to that sequence, instead rebooting the joint Hugo and Nebula winners in chronological order starting in 2017.)
Rereading the story now, I found that it has grown on me again – in particular I loved the resonance between grandmother Zofia and grandfather Rustam, and present-day Genevieve and boyfriend Jake. And perhaps I have got more used to American humour in the last two decades, but I found the story funnier than my recollection. Definitely worth revisiting. “The Faery Handbag” is available on Link’s website for free.
“The Faery Handbag” won the Hugo for Best Novelette in Glasgow in 2005, the first ceremony that I attended. Best Novel went to Jonathan Strange & Mr Norrell, by Susanna Clarke; Best Novella to “The Concrete Jungle”, by Charles Stross; and Best Short Story to “Travels with My Cats”, by Mike Resnick.
These were the days of the crazy Nebula nominations system, so it won the 2005 Nebula for Best Novelette in 2006 (for a 2004 publication). Best Novel went to Camouflage, by Joe Haldeman; Best Novella to “Magic for Beginners”, also by Kelly Link; and Best Short Story to “I Live With You”, by Carol Emshwiller (who turned 85 the month before the ceremony).
Of the other Best Novelette finalists, “The People of Sand and Slag” by Paolo Bacigalupi was on the ballot with “The Faery Handbag” both times, and “The Voluntary State” by Christopher Rowe was on the same Hugo ballot and the previous year’s Nebula ballot.
Next in this sequence: “Two Hearts”, by Peter S. Beagle.
I don’t know where this illustration comes from, but it’s cute.

Tradecraft in the Information Age
2025-07-11 16:06![[syndicated profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/feed.png)
Long article on the difficulty (impossibility?) of human spying in the age of ubiquitous digital surveillance.
11 July books
2025-07-11 14:01![[syndicated profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/feed.png)
Non-fiction
The Megalith Builders of Western Europe, by Glyn Daniel (2007)
Asteroids: A History, by Curtis Peebles (2007)
The Nobel Prizes, by Burton Feldman (2007)
Queen Elizabeth I, by J.E. Neale (2009)
In Xanadu, by William Dalrymple (2017)
The Complete Ice Age, ed. Brian M. Fagan (2018)
After the War: How to Keep Europe Safe, by Paul Taylor (2023)
The Myth Makers, by Ian Z. Potter (2024)
Non-genre
Once in a Blue Moon, by Magnus Mills (2007)
Three To See the King, by Magnus Mills (2007)
Faith, by Joanna Trollope (2007)
Far From the Madding Crowd, by Thomas Hardy (2009)
Scripts
Antigone, by Sophocles (2012)
Oedipus the Tyrant , by Sophocles (2012)
Oedipus at Colonus, by Sophocles (2012)
SF
Newton’s Wake, by Ken MacLeod (2004)
The Human Abstract, by George Mann (2004)
Cartomancy, by Mary Gentle (2004)
The Magicians, by Lev Grossman (2011)
Catfishing on CatNet, by Naomi Kritzer (2020)
Deeplight, by Frances Hardinge (2020)
Dragon Pearl, by Yoon Ha Lee (2020)
Minor Mage, by T. Kingfisher (2020)
Riverland, by Fran Wilde (2020)
The Wicked King, by Holly Black (2020)
Bluebird, by Ciel Pierlot (2023)
Doctor Who, etc
Martha in the Mirror, by Justin Richards (2010)
The best, also the one you haven’t heard of
I’m going to give top billing to the book on this list that I read most recently, Ian Potter’s survey of the history behind the 1965 Doctor Who story The Myth Makers, which goes in depth into the personal stories of two of the key people behind the camera, as well as the usual analysis of what the story is actually about. (Review; get it here.)
Honourable mentions
Two of the books on the 2020 Lodestar Award ballot (reviewed here) struck me as especially impressive: Naomi Kritzer’s Catfishing on CatNet (which won; get it here) and Frances Hardinge’s Deeplight (get it here).
William Dalrymple’s In Xanadu, an account of his student-era retracing of the route of Marco Polo from Palestine to China, is an old favourite. (Review; get it here.)
The one you haven’t heard of
The Myth Makers, as described above.
The one to avoid
George Mann’s The Human Abstract was one of a number of books I reviewed for the old Infinity Plus website; it was by far the worst of them. (Infinity Plus review; get it here.)
The Memory Librarian by Janelle Monáe
2025-07-11 09:08![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)

New Dawn requires only that people conform without exception or face memory erasure and worse. Yet, a minority insists on being individuals.
The Memory Librarian by Janelle Monáe
Girl Genius for Friday, July 11, 2025
2025-07-11 04:00![[syndicated profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/feed.png)